You don’t really know that the housing market has shifted until it’s already happened. Getting out in front of a market downturn can save money and headache for both homeowners and potential home buyers, but if you’re not paying attention, you’ll find yourself in the middle of a downturn without a plan. When I inventory all the tools and knowledge that I’m constantly gaining as a Realtor and apply it to our Louisville housing market, I see some changes coming. Here’s what you need to know:
Alright, everybody just keep calm. We’re not talking about a 2008 complete market meltdown. This is more of a market correction than anything. Sellers are still recognizing solid profits when selling their Louisville homes, however inventory is beginning to build up. Our housing inventory is still lower than it was 2 years ago, but higher than 6 months ago. New listings this year compared to last year are only up by about 2%, but the largest difference will be seen during this second half of the year. People saw what was happening earlier this year and decided to take advantage of it by putting their home on the market. This is a natural consequence of a strong market: people see other people selling fast for top dollar and they want to ride the train. It may take about a year, but with a sudden influx of people placing their homes for sale, inventory will begin to rise, and it already has. In fact, there are currently around 800 more properties listed on the MLS than there were 6 months ago.
The fall home selling season in Louisville is just about upon us. Typically from Labor Day until the beginning of December we will see almost as many homes sold as there are in the spring months. In fact, last fall (9/1/16 – 11/30/16) we saw about 3,800 homes sold, whereas this spring (4/1/17 – 6/30/17) there were about 4,400 homes sold. That’s only a difference of 600 homes, and we are comparing stats with this spring, which was certainly the hottest market we have seen since 2008. What am I saying? The fall season is just as good of a time to sell your home as the spring. People are always waiting for the spring, but what you need to realize is this: if you can sell your home for just as much money in the fall, why would you wait until the spring? “Everyone sells in the spring”. Well if that’s true, why would you want to compete with everyone else? At this point, the spring of 2018 is uncertain. Now, don’t get me wrong. I do believe the Louisville housing market will thrive in the spring of 2018, but for how long? Will it be a normal 3-4 month season? Will it only last a month? It’s hard to say. What we do know is that the average sale price in ALL Jefferson County markets went up this year. Areas like St Matthews and Crescent Hill have an average sale price so far this year that is up almost 12% over last year.
Average sale prices in the Highlands, Germantown, and Prospect are up about 9% over last year. PRP, Valley Station, Okolona, and Buechel are up more than 8% over last year. Oldham County is up 10% and Shelby County is up 13%. What you have to realize is that a 5% average sale price increase is a lot for Louisville. When you double that over a couple of years, affordability begins to dwindle. You can’t sustain that amount of growth for a long period of time. I believe this momentum will carry through the fall, but how long after that?
The point of this information isn’t to scare you or cast a dark shadow on the future. I want people to know that if someone is on the fence right now about whether or not to sell their home, this information could be helpful. This is my job as a Realtor®. My clients receive this information on a regular basis. If you want to receive regular updates, protect your investment, and stay informed about the housing market, send me an email and I will be that resource for you.
If you’re thinking about moving to Louisville or relocating within Louisville, I would love to speak with you about your next home. 502.509.9278 or firstname.lastname@example.org